The Charcoal Project

In no particular order, here are my top ten predictions for the year.

1. The US Senate will consider levying taxes against India and China in an effort to “level” the playing field with these top CO2 polluters.

2. In the absence of a binding agreement on curbing global greenhouse gas emissions, governments will look inward at more aggressive actions that will independently reduce the various “wedges” that make up the global emissions pie.

3. There will be a major push to implement more aggressive energy efficiency measures in developing countries

4.  After all the posturing and politicking of Copenhagen, progress will be made to establish a framework outside the UN context to protect the CO2-sequestering capacity of tropical forests through compensation mechanisms.

5. The US will lead in alleviating energy poverty in developing countries, which is why The Charcoal Project will work hard this year to put on the agenda a crash program in energy efficiency for stoves, kilns, and alternative biomass fuels.

6. The US Congress will pass meaningful legislation designed to curb emissions

7. The US will embrace the development of green technology/clean energy challenge against competitors like China, Japan, and Europe.

8. A series of countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will begin to consider large-scale biomass energy-efficiency programs.

9. In the context of forest protection, ideas will be floated designed to regulate the commercial trade of charcoal across borders. (See our post)

10. By December 31st, The Charcoal Project will have solidly established itself as an actor in the field of biomass energy-efficiency!

Yes, 2010 will be better than 2009.

Kim

I did not attend Copenhagen but I did follow news stories from many sources.  Below are some of the more widely held conclusions as well as a quick analysis of what this means for energy efficiency, REDD, and energy poverty alleviation.

1. A deal appeared to be within striking distance but it was scuttled by one of the BASIC countries for political reasons.

2. Any future, meaningful agreement will likely arise through a non-UN framework

3. All the heavy CO2 hitters, with the exception of China, came very, very close to reaching a meaningful agreement.

4. The big looser in all this is Europe, who had to tow the US line as it watched its global influence wane in favor of the emerging, so-called BASIC countries.

5. All the major CO2 polluters will continue to carryout their established climate change and CO2 abatement policies.

6. A final deal regarding commitments to caps and financing are not likely to happen in 2010.

7. The US, Europe, Japan have commited $10 billion over the next three years to fund green tech transfer and adaptation for developing countries.

8. The next goal is to get all major CO2 polluters to sign up to firm caps on their emissions at a January 31st summit in Mexico.

9. The US, through the Dpt. of Energy, has pledged $100 million to fund energy efficency funding in the developing world.

10. Major polluters, including China, agreed to external verification of actions to curb emissions.